美国:季节性生猪价格持续上升

2017-05-15 14:23:13   加裕种猪 浏览量:169
  加裕养猪评论
  
  Pork Commentary
  
  加裕总裁兼CEO Jim Long
  
  Jim Long President-CEO Genesus Inc.
  
  季节性生猪价格持续上升
  
  Seasonal Hog Price Rise Continues
  
  现在是5月,通常从5月直到9月是生猪生产商的时机,这个时期猪价更高,通常是一年之中最赚钱的时期。
  
  近期夏季廋肉猪期货和现货价格均有上涨。居中水平的生产商可能现在刚好保本,但是就目前夏季廋肉猪期货和饲料价格而言,居中水平的生产商在未来几周应该有每头猪30美元的盈利。更好的时机就是现在。
  
  It’s the month of May, usually from May till September is hog producers time to get higher prices and generally have the most profitable period of the year.
  
  Both summer lean hog futures and cash prices have appreciated recently.  Average Producers should be at about breakeven right now but at current summer lean hog futures and feed price average producers should have profits of $30 plus per head in the weeks ahead.  Better times are just about here.
  
  西班牙
  
  Spain
  
  上周我们会见了西班牙生产商。西班牙是世界第三大生猪生产国。目前西班牙生猪市场价格为每公斤活重1.355欧元,或者美国每磅活重66美分(每头165美元)。美国每头猪利润达到30美元。不错的利润。分割猪肉的批发价格跟美国类似(78美分每磅)。西班牙屠宰商分割利润明显比美国低。相对美国来说,西班牙的屠宰产能过剩。这就是他们加工屠宰和毛利偏低的原因。生猪竞争有利于生猪生产商。
  
  西班牙非常成功地捕捉到了中国增长的猪肉需求。部分原因是,在欧洲其他国家实施制裁之前,西班牙已经停止向俄罗斯出口一年。需找市场的必要性使得他们把目光投向中国,而当中国猪肉需求上升时,他们正位于贸易关系发展的领先地位。
  
  Last week we were with Spanish producers.  Spain is the third largest hog producing country in the world.  Currently the Spanish hog market is 1.355 Euro/kg liveweight or 66¢ U.S liveweight a lb.  ($165 per head).  Profits running about $30 U.S per head.  Good profits.  Pork cut-out wholesale price similar to U.S (78¢ lb.).  In Spain packer cut-out margin has been significantly lower then USA.  Spain has excess packer capacity relative to USA.  That’s the reason they have a lower Packer kill and Gross Margin.  Competition for hogs is good for swine producers.
  
  Spain has been quite successful in capturing the increased pork volume that China has required.  Part of that reason Spain was stopped from shipping to Russia a year before the rest of Europe was sanctioned.  The necessity to find markets got them to China and when the need arose in China for more pork they were ahead on business relationship development.
  
  西班牙历来主要使用皮特兰猪。主要产品是带有大理石花纹的瘦肉。随着中国以及亚洲其他出口国家市场的增长,西班牙已经针对亚洲客户的需求做出了反应,他们转为更多的使用杜洛克公猪来增加口感和风味。在过去的四年里,加裕公司的杜洛克猪在西班牙市场的需求持续增长。当我们第一次到西班牙的时候,别人说我们疯了,因为西班牙只会使用皮特兰猪。我们没有皮特兰,我们都是杜洛克猪。我们相信所有的消费者希望吃到口味更好的猪肉。在西班牙加裕公司杜洛克猪的使用持续增长,我们预计增长会一直保持,正如对于更好口感的需求正在国内市场和出口市场中扩大。
  
  Spain has traditionally been a major user of Piétrain.  Lean Pork with traces of marbling was the main product.  With the growth of China and other Asia Export markets, Spain has reacted to Asian customers demand and moved to using more Duroc Boars to increase taste and flavor.  Over the last four years Genesus Durocs have continued to grow in demand in the Spanish market.  When we first went there, we were told we were crazy as Spain would only use Piétrans.  We don’t have Piétrans, we are all in for Durocs.  We believe all consumers want better tasting pork.  Spain Genesus Duroc use continues to grow and we expect this to continue as the demand for better taste is expanding domestically and in export market.
  
  在西班牙,分割出来最好的猪肉是火腿。这跟美国完全相反,在美国,火腿价格徘徊在腹部价格的一半。在西班牙火腿是王道。火腿被风干然后腌制2年。一个伊利比亚火腿的价格可以达到近1000美元。这种火腿非常好吃。杜洛克猪培育的伊利比亚火腿变得非常受欢迎,从而也推动了纯种杜洛克作为一种市场生猪项目生产一款优质产品。从皮特兰到杜洛克的迅速转变十分令人吃惊,因为快速认识到这两种猪的口感和风味的差异,以及在市场上意味着什么。
  
  In Spain the Prime pork cut is Ham.  Totally contrary to the U.S where Ham languishes at half the price of bellies.  In Spain Ham is king.  Hams are dried and cured up to two years.  Prices can reach near $1,000 U.S for a single Iberian Ham.  The Ham is delicious.  Duroc bred to Iberian is becoming very popular and there is a push to purebred Durocs as a market hog program to produce a premium product.  Its kind of amazing the rapid evolution from Piétran to Durocs as the recognition accelerates on the difference in taste and flavor and what it means in the marketplace.
  
  西班牙有几个集约公司,为首的是拥有206,000头母猪的Vall公司。Vall公司是欧洲最大的国有养猪生产商。大部分集约公司执行的模式是饲养母猪,提供饲料,养殖户们每头猪获得大约12欧元(13美元)提供给建筑劳动力。断奶仔猪然后进入合作的保育和育肥舍,这种集约猪场饲养所有生猪。类似Vall公司这样的集约公司拥有自己的屠宰厂和加工厂。这种模式下的集约公司没有自己的存栏。集约公司承担生产风险,但是没有资金部署猪场,土地,肥料处理。
  
  Spain has several integrators led by Vall Companys with 206,000 sows.  Vall Companys is the largest European owned swine producer.  The model most integrators follow is to own the sows provide the feed, producer gets about 12 euros ($13) per head to provide building-labor.  The pigs then go to contract nurseries and finishers where integrator owns all pigs.  Integrators such as Vall Companys have there own packing and processing.  Integrators do not own barns in this model.  Integrators take production risk but have no capital deployed in owning swine buildings, land, manure disposal.
  
  西班牙市场做好了继续增长的准备。每年600万头的屠宰产能只是刚好能够完成或正在进行。在西班牙承包的集约模式似乎可行,因为拥有农场的生产商在不承担价格风险的情况下,能够放心的生产。
  
  Spain is posed to continue to grow.  More Packing plant capacity of 6 million head a year is just being completed or underway.  The integrated model of contracting seems to work in Spain as producers with buildings are comfortable to produce without taking price risk.
  
  西班牙没有许多具有全球竞争力的产业,养猪行业是一个例外。很明显西班牙的养猪行业具有良好的领导能力和竞争合作。在Lerida进行的每周会议就是真实例子,在那里屠宰商-集约化公司-生产商聚到一起,通过协商和协作共同建立一个统一的国家市场生猪价格。
  
  没有其他地方是这么做的,我们怀疑这种方式在其他任何地方是否也可行。方式独特但确实有效。
  
  Spain doesn’t have many Globally competitive industries.  The Spanish swine sector is an exception.  Its obvious Spain’s swine industry has had good leadership and with that a competitive collaboration.  A real example of this is the weekly meeting in the city of Lerida where Packers-Integrators-Producers get together and work to establish through consultation and collaboration an agreed national price for market pigs.  Nowhere else is this done, we doubt if it would be possible anywhere else.  Unique but it works.
  
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  杜洛克火腿
  
  Duroc Ham
图片2.png
  
  传统火腿切片固定器
  
  Traditional Ham Holder for slicing
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  参观屠宰加工厂
  
  Packing Plant visit
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